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ARD-DeutschlandTREND

December 2009

The vast majority of the Germans have second thoughts if the Federal Governments’ information policy regarding the mission of the Bundeswehr in Afghanistan is comprehensive and honest. 77 percent believe that incorrect information about the air strike against two road tankers at the beginning of September is not a singular case. The number of those favouring a quick retreat from the central Asian country has increased to 69%. Additionally, almost one in two (47%) expects that the German army will be withdrawn from Afghanistan within the next five years.

 

Few days before the beginning of the UN climate conference in Copenhagen half of the Germans (50 percent) plead for a stronger commitment to climate protection by the Federal Government. 38 percent state that climate protection is already taken seriously enough. A minority of 10 percent believes that the German Government is overacting with its measures regarding climate change. In principle, there is a strong preparedness to behave in an environment and climate friendly manner. More than one in two (56 percent) would accept higher prices for energy from renewable sources. However, three in four (75 percent) oppose an increase in costs for motoring in order to reduce CO2 emissions.

 

The voter’s first attestation of the black-yellow coalition turns out rather moderate. About one month after the inauguration of the new Cabinet just one-third (33 percent) is satisfied in contrast to 60 percent who are dissatisfied with the performance. Some disenchantment can be found among partisans of the government parties as well: While 68 percent of the Union partisans had been satisfied with the grand coalition, satisfaction with the new coalition of CDU and FDP amounts to only 62 percent – though this was the favoured coalition. Among partisans of the FDP only one in two (53 percent) is satisfied.

 

As the analysis of party competencies reveals, the SPD suffers from massive losses in some policy fields and has to struggle to build a new substantial policy profile in the aftermath of the election defeat. This also applies to the top candidate Frank-Walter Steinmeier: In his new role as chairman of the SPD parliamentary group 45 percent (19 less than in September) evaluate his political work positive. Currently, the most popular and top-ranking politicians are Chancellor Angela Merkel (70 percent), the Minister of Defence Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg (69 percent) and the Minister of Labour and Social Affairs Ursula von der Leyen (66 percent).

 

If a General Election were to beheld next Sunday 35 percent would vote for the Union. The Social Democrats would gain 24 percent. The greens would receive 13 percent, the FDP 12 percent and the Left Party 11 percent. According to this result the Union and FDP would not have a majority.

Research Design
Universe:
eligible voters in Germany
Sample design:
representative random sample
Data collection method:
computer-based telephone interviews (CATI)
Base size:
1.000 respondents
Voting intention: 1.500 respondents
Field period:
30 November - 1 December 2009
Voting intention: 30 November - 2 December 2009
Error margin:
1,4* bto 3,1** percentage points
* at a share of 5%
** at a share of 50%
Institute:
Infratest dimap