ARD-DeutschlandTREND

Vote Intention: April 2010

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Satisfaction with Westerwelle and Rösler

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Satisfaction with Leyen, Merkel and Guttenberg

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Party Competence: Economy

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With respect to the debate tax policy a majority prefer efforts to reduce the public debt to tax reductions. Even if there were funds available in 2012, only 12 percent would favour using them for tax reductions. Instead, its use for the better completion of public functions is supported by 23 percent, while a broad majority (63 percent) prefers the reduction of public debt.

The current discussion about the prolongation of the operating span of nuclear power plants could turn out to be a risk for the coalition: Six in ten wish for the nuclear phase-out by 2012 (48 percent) and even six percent opt spontaneously for an earlier shutdown of all nuclear power plants. However, four in ten support a prolongation further than 2021: 29 percent approve the nuclear phase-out by 2030, the date suggested by Environment Minister Röttgen, 13 percent back a further extension of the operating span till 2050.

Five months after the start of the black-yellow coalition, its reputation has reached its low: At present, barely 23 percent are satisfied with the work of the federal government. In contrast, three in four (75 percent) express criticism.

A more critical evaluation of some of its most important members is of the reasons for this loss of reputation: Minister of Defence Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, top-ranked last month, suffers heavy losses in the context of the parliamentary committee that investigates the Kunduz air strike. Currently, only 55 percent (-14) are satisfied with his work. Angela Merkel also faces losses, she now ranks second with an approval rate of 55 percent (-7) along with Guttenberg, close to top-ranked Employment Minister Ursula von der Leyen (56 percent, -2). Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle suffers losses as well and now ranks last (23 percent, -2). The only cabinet member that could improve his standing is Health Minister Philipp Rösler: He is still graded bad marks by the majority, but could clearly gain approval with his approach to restrain the costs of prescription drugs though.

The crisis of the Liberals now reaches the level of content. The economical and fiscal-political trust they could gain in the run-up to the federal elections is seriously affected. Currently, only 7 percent perceive the Liberals as the party most capable of dealing with fiscal policies/ as the one with the highest fiscal competence (-12 compared to September 2009). Barely 7 percent still think that the Liberals held the highest economic competence (-7 compared to September 2009). Although the Foreign Office is headed by Liberal Minister Westerwelle, only 5 percent see the FDP as most proficient with regard to foreign affairs.

At present, both government parties would suffer losses: The Union would achieve 35 percent (-1), the FDP could count on 8 percent (-2). The Greens are able to maintain their share of 14 percent whereas the Left Party (11 percent) would loose one point. The Social Democrats, however, would gain votes and get 28 percent (+3), a level last reached in March 2008.

These are the main results of ARD-DeutschlandTREND in April, conducted by Infratest dimap on behalf of ARD-Tagesthemen and five daily newspapers. In a representative survey among eligible voters in Germany, 1.000 persons were questioned by telephone January 1st and 2nd, and 1.500 from March 29th to 30th for the voting preference poll. The survey design allows for generalization of results to the German voting population, with an error margin of 1.4 to 3.1 percentage points.