ARD-DeutschlandTREND

Will Christian Wulff be a good Federal President?

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Vote intention July 2010

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Though his nomination was widely criticised and three ballots were needed in the election, more than half of the citizens believe that Christian Wulff is the right candidate elected as Federal President. In addition, the newly elected tenth president receives a leap of faith: 7 in 10 citizens are convinced that Christian Wulff will be a good incumbent.

However, there is a notable contrast between the generally positive evaluation of the electoral outcome and the critical view of the concomitants of the election: one half of the citizens are disappointed of the way the candidates were nominated beforehand. Two thirds assess the necessity of three ballots as a personal embarrassment for Angela Merkel. Eight in ten see this as proof that Chancellor Merkel no longer has the coalition under control. As a consequence, 61 percent doubt that the announced new start of “black-yellow” will succeed.

The current evaluation of the government’s overall performance shows how necessary a new start still is. Only 19 percent of the Germans think the government does a good job – the second lowest result since the inauguration of the black-yellow coalition in autumn 2009. However, the negative trend of the past months seems to be stopped. Nevertheless, among the supporters of the two governing parties, negative assessments still prevail. Angela Merkel as well as her cabinet remain in a reputation low, Though she can gain some acceptance, the current result of 43 percent still represents the second lowest support level for her since 2005. The necessity of a new start for the black-yellow coalition is also indicated by the development of the party competences attributed to the CDU/CSU and FDP in different policy areas. While the Liberals had to cope with a significant loss in spring, CDU and CSU now suffer a significant loss as well.

Compared to the political climate measured in mid-July, the CDU/CSU can gain 1 point and could count on 33 percent of the vote. The Social democrats also gain one point and would achieve 30 percent. Greens and Liberals would remain constant with 17 and 5 percent respectively (+/-0). The Left Party could score 10 percent (-1) and all other parties together would achieve 5 percent (-1).

These are the main results of ARD-DeutschlandTREND in July, conducted by Infratest dimap on behalf of ARD-Tagesthemen and five daily newspapers. In a representative survey among eligible voters in Germany, 1.000 persons were questioned by telephone June 30^th and July 1^st. The survey design allows for generalization of results to the German voting population, with an error margin of 1.4 to 3.1 percentage points.