ARD-DeutschlandTREND

July 2013

Vote intention

Vote intention

Chancellor preference

Chancellor preference

Which parties will govern after the election?

Which parties will govern after the election?

Statements regarding surveillance by secret services

Statements regarding surveillance by secret services

USA are a „trustworthy“ partner for Germany“

USA are a „trustworthy“ partner for Germany“

Who will be chancellor after the election?

Who will be chancellor after the election?

The most important topic of recent days was the discussion about the revelations of the data espionage by American and British intelligence services. Data surveillance by intelligence Services to fight against terrorism is not rejected by Germans on principle. However, the extent to which the USA and Great Britain are spying out telephone and internet data surprised most of the Germans (61 per cent). Also the fact that the Federal Republic, of all countries, became a target of the activities of the intelligence services in Europe caused astonishment (62 per cent). Accordingly, the German citizens’ confidence in the partner countries USA and Great Britain has been undermined.


The revelations of the data espionage also preoccupy German domestic policy. The opposition sharply criticizes that the government devotes too little attention to the issue and Germans agree with this criticism. 78 per cent demand an appropriate response from Angela Merkel to the USA and Great Britain. However, the domestic policy debates about the affair have not yet affected the actual political mood in Germany: If federal elections were held this Sunday, the Union would reach 42 per cent, a plus of 1 point compared to last week. The SPD would reach 25 per cent (-1). The Greens gain 1 point and could count on 14 per cent of the vote. Like last week the Left would reach 7 per cent. The FDP remains stable with 4 per cent. In spite of the debates on data surveillance, the Pirates remain at the level of 3 per cent.

 

Angela Merkel continues to be the major political asset of the Union. Despite some losses, the chair of the CDU continues to lead the list of the most popular politicians. In addition, more than every second person entitled to vote (58 per cent) prefers the CDU politician to the SPD-challenger Peer Steinbrück (27 per cent) as chancellor. The popularity of Merkel is reflected in the fact that the majority (49 per cent) prefers a government lead by the Union, whereas 39 per cent support a federal government lead by the Social Democrats. However, just 37 per cent support a continuation of the present liberal conservative coalition of Union and Liberals. More than half of the Germans (55 per cent) prefer another government constellation.

Regarding the next Federal government, 81 per cent of the Germans expect that the CDU-incumbent chancellor Merkel will remain in office. Only 13 per cent reckon with an SPD-chancellor Peer Steinbrück. In contrast, the picture regarding the question which parties will form the next government is not as clear-cut: 31 per cent expect the formation of a grand coalition of Union and SPD and just as many (30 per cent) believe in the continuation of the present liberal conservative coalition.

 

These are the main results of the ARD-DeutschlandTREND in July 2013, conducted by Infratest dimap on behalf of ARD-Tagesthemen and the daily newspapers DIE WELT. In a representative survey among eligible voters in Germany, 1,005 persons were questioned by telephone July 1st to July 3rd, for the questions about vote intention, asylum for Snowden and justification for the data collections of the intelligence services 1,505 persons were interviewed. The survey design allows for generalization of results to the German voting population with an error margin of 1.4 to 3.1 percentage points.

Research Design

Universe:Eligible voters in Germany

Sample design:Representative random sample/Dual Frame

Data collection method:Computer-based telephone interviews (CATI) /Dual Frame

Base size:1.005 respondents
Vote intention: 1.505 respondents

Field period:1st - 3rd July, 2013

Error margin:1,4* to 3,1** percentage points
* at a share of 5%
** at a share of 50%


Institute:infratest dimap

Opinion and Election Research

Heiko Gothe

Associate Director Opinion and Election Research

heiko.gothe @infratest-dimap.de